ASEAN was founded in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand as a Cold War-era regional bloc to counter communist influence. Today, it includes 10 member states:
🌏 Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Key geopolitical principles of ASEAN:

• Regional Stability: Preventing conflicts and ensuring peaceful coexistence.

• Economic Integration: A collective approach to trade and investment.

• Neutrality: Avoiding direct alignment with global superpowers (China, the U.S., etc.).

• Consensus-Based Decision-Making: A slow but inclusive approach to governance.

ASEAN's geopolitical cosmology is defined by three major worldviews that guide its policies and interactions:

A. The ASEAN Centrality Cosmology

ASEAN sees itself as the central stabilizing force in Southeast Asia. This vision is based on:

• Non-Interference Policy: Member states do not interfere in each other’s domestic affairs.

• The ASEAN Way: Decision-making through consensus, emphasizing diplomacy and compromise.

• ASEAN-led Initiatives: The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) provide diplomatic platforms for major global players to engage with ASEAN.

However, internal divisions often weaken ASEAN’s ability to take strong positions, especially on China’s South China Sea expansion or Myanmar’s internal conflict.

B. The Economic Pragmatism Cosmology

ASEAN prioritizes economic growth and integration as a tool for stability and influence. This worldview is seen in:

• ASEAN Economic Community (AEC): Aims to create a single market and production base.

• RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership): The world’s largest trade pact, led by ASEAN and including China, Japan, and Australia.

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Diplomacy: ASEAN welcomes investment from China, the U.S., the EU, and Japan, ensuring economic leverage.

This economic cosmology means ASEAN avoids ideological battles, preferring trade partnerships over political alignments.

C. The Balancing Act Cosmology

ASEAN is geopolitically caught between superpowers and adopts a multi-alignment strategy to maintain autonomy.

1. China:

   • ASEAN’s largest trade partner.

   • Massive investments via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

   • Tensions over South China Sea militarization.

2. The U.S.:

   • Security partnerships through Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam.

   • Military presence in South China Sea and Indo-Pacific strategy.

   • Pushes for democracy and human rights, which ASEAN cautiously navigates.

3. Japan & South Korea:

   • Major investors in ASEAN infrastructure and technology.

   • Japan pushes for an ASEAN alternative to China’s influence.

4. India & Australia:

   • India: Engages ASEAN through Act East Policy, focusing on economic ties and maritime security.

   • Australia: Strengthens ASEAN security cooperation through AUKUS alliance (U.S.-UK-Australia).

ASEAN’s balancing cosmology prevents it from becoming a satellite of any major power, while still benefiting from all sides.

3. The Internal Geopolitical Cosmology of ASEAN

Despite its unity, ASEAN is internally divided into different geopolitical subgroups:

1. Mainland ASEAN (Indochina Region – Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar):

   • Vietnam & Thailand: More assertive on security issues.

   • Cambodia & Laos: Heavily dependent on China.

   • Myanmar: Isolated due to military rule.

2. Maritime ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Brunei):

   • Indonesia: Largest economy, prefers neutrality.

   • Singapore: Financial hub, close to the U.S.

   • Philippines: Balances U.S. military ties with China’s economic influence.

These internal geopolitical cosmologies mean that ASEAN often struggles to take a unified stance on contentious issues like the South China Sea or Myanmar’s human rights crisis.

4. Future Trends in ASEAN’s Geopolitical Cosmology

A. Will ASEAN Maintain its Neutrality?

As China-U.S. tensions escalate, ASEAN’s strategy of non-alignment will be tested.

• The Philippines and Vietnam seek stronger U.S. security ties.

• Cambodia and Laos lean closer to China.

• Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand try to balance both powers.

B. The Rise of ASEAN as an Economic Superblock

ASEAN’s economic power is growing:

• The fastest-growing digital economy in the world.

• Key hub for supply chain diversification as companies relocate from China.

• RCEP’s full implementation could make ASEAN a global trade powerhouse.

C. The ASEAN Security Dilemma

The South China Sea dispute will define ASEAN’s geopolitical stance in the coming years:

• China continues militarizing islands, ignoring ASEAN diplomatic protests.

• The U.S. increases naval patrols to counter China’s expansion.

• ASEAN members may be forced to choose sides.

D. ASEAN’s Role in Climate Diplomacy

Climate change is an existential threat for ASEAN:

• Rising sea levels threaten Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila.

• ASEAN seeks green energy investments but remains dependent on coal and fossil fuels.

• Regional cooperation on climate policy will shape ASEAN’s diplomatic agenda.

ASEAN’s geopolitical cosmology is pragmatic, non-aligned, and economically driven, but increasingly under pressure due to great power rivalry.

ASEAN’s Geopolitical Identity in 3 Key Points:

1. A Strategic "Middle Power Pivot" – ASEAN refuses to be absorbed into either the U.S. or China’s sphere of influence.

2. A Regional Economic Hub – Trade partnerships and supply chains define ASEAN’s leverage.

3. A Fragmented but Essential Power – Internal divisions weaken ASEAN’s unity, but its location and economic strength make it indispensable.

Will ASEAN remain neutral in the coming decade? Or will growing tensions force it to choose a side? That will define the next stage of its geopolitical cosmology.